If some entity removed Donald Trump from office by force a certain number of people would celebrate. We (you and I dear reader) are aware that many have been effectively manipulated in to angry adversarial politics. This political structure is common and cultivated. We know that the ruling class find it useful. If only that guy was gone everything would be great!
And of course the people are divided.
This (celebration) is normal and predictable. So predictable that war marketing magnifies (and manufactures) it immediately after an invasion.
But what really matters is the $$$. Venezuela sells “concessions” or the right to take some of the worlds largest reserve of oil.
In the 1920s a roughly 10% split went to Venezuela with 90% going to the oil companies. Later it became 50%. In the 90s Venezuela vertically integrated for themselves. Refining, drilling, all that. Everything for the people theoretically. There were issues, but it was a lot better than before.
Worth noting it was the early 1940s when Venezuela pioneered the 50/50 split between resource country and oil company. This became an international standard. This split was in place from about 1945 to 1975 and those years are generally considered some of happier times for the people. But they were taking a split on the crude alone and they wanted upstream processing profits.
Around 2000 “politics” mysteriously derailed essentially all of their oil production for a time. Then chaos and new friends came, but most importantly a series of escalating sanctions that became crippling began in 2014.
Western sanctions are the hammer that beats the poorest humans in to the dirt anywhere they are imposed. The poor have no backup so they go without homes and food often. This is well known, well documented and well understood by the people who make these decisions. Ultimately they see the lives of these cast aside people as expendable in the pursuit of profit.
There were problems with Venezuelas oil company. It appears the legal structure lent itself to potential misappropriation or at least autonomy that the government did not expect or appreciate. Chavez (and other highly placed officials) pointed to CIA involvement. There is some corroborating evidence of this though no smoking gun. We can all agree that something is better than nothing to the people of Venezuela. It is advantageous for them to own their reserves and production.
Back to the war machine.
International capital is not famous for its empathy and charity. If they gain real control in a country, typically austerity quickly follows. They will squeeze the people dry.
This is not a military occupation (yet), it is a shake down.
I predict armed fighting. Venezuela has great assets that many powerful countries benefit from. I expect this bluff to be called then what do we do? How many more trillions will we spend on another failure for the American people?
1/6/2026 4am As I review this I am profoundly disappointed that I gave in to the logic of the day and talked about the financial cost to Americans. How we devalued human life enough to discuss the “costs of war” in this way is I suppose not entirely mysterious. There have been so many wars we have become morally detached. Its a television playing a profoundly dark series on low volume in a distant room of the house. The people that are made to suffer from this empiricism, those that lose their lives their trajectories, their well being, they are what is most valuable.
1/7/2025 I should add that Venezuela’s failure to diversify its economy is one of its greatest issues. Much of it is foreign interference. But much of its failure to act is its own fault. Countries like Saudi Arabia for example are well diversified. They invest their enormous capital generally well and certainly successfully.
